Sens Poll Results Recap – The Goalies
Written By: Luke Muise
I love goalies.
I'm sure that's a function of me being one myself, but it's also because it's such a unique - and unpredictable - position.
So, how about we make some goaltending predictions?
I'm feeling confident in the Sens' new look in goal. The Sens have been trying to find stability they haven't had in net since Craig Anderson and they may have found it in the tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg.
The two were former teammates and Calder Cup champions in the AHL which certainly played into Management's decision to sign Korpisalo to a five-year deal. They've built this team on skill, speed, toughness, and the power of friendship. His addition certainly fits the Sens' M.O.
I recently asked Sens fans to vote on how they thought the Sens goaltending would shake out over the course of this season. I'll provide some of my own predictions for what they're worth, which probably isn't much. No one is. This is NHL goaltending we're talking about here.
We'll go category by category.
Games played
The prediction by the fans feels correct. Korpisalo was brought in to work in tandem with Forsberg, and is getting paid more money. That means Forsberg will likely start slightly fewer games. How many depends on how both goalies perform, but this range seems fair for a pre-season prediction.
I'm glad to see the fans didn't vote themselves into a paradox here when they got to Korpisalo. The math can math between the two predictions.
My prediction: Korpisalo plays 47, Forsberg plays 35. I'm assuming they both stay healthy for the purpose of the exercise.
Wins
Does Forsberg's feel low? Feels a little low to me. To be fair, I polled fans before training camp opened so no one had a chance to see that Forsberg looks as good as ever after his freak double-mcl injuries last season. I'm sure that played into people's opinion. I think the 31 percent have it here, though it will likely be on the lower end of that range.
I think the majority have the correct range for Korpisalo here. Korpisalo should start more games and probably take on some of the tougher matchups overall. I do believe he'll have a successful season behind an improved Sens defence.
My prediction: Korpisalo wins 25 games and Forsberg wins 21. That gives the team 46 wins between the two of them. Spoilers for the next poll projection recap.
SV%
This is a tough one to gauge in a Twitter poll - over the course of a season the difference between a .900 and .910 or .911 and .920 save percentage is pretty substantial, so the ranges here are kind of wonky. I do think the majority are underestimating Forsberg here though. Ever since the Sens picked him up off waivers he's been solid, and now he's got the best version of the Sens defence in recent memory ahead of him.
His career sv% is .908, and in his best season with the Sens he posted an impressive .917.
Korpisalo's career sv% numbers are all over the place, and culminate in a less-than-ideal .904. The extension the Sens gave him over the summer, particularly the term, was certainly a bit of a risk. He was coming off a career season in which he looked spectacular on a dreadful Columbus Blue Jackets team, posting a .913 there before being traded to LA and posting a .921. The fan prediction is optimistic but in my opinion is fair.
My prediction: Forsberg posts a .912 and Korpisalo posts a .915 sv%.
Shutouts
I'm a firm believer that shutouts, while highly indicative of strong goaltending, are ultimately a team stat. That being said, the stat gets listed beside a goalie's name, so we're predicting them here.
Neither of the Sens goalies are shutout machines, so I'm not sure we can expect them to suddenly start posting a bunch of them. Forsberg has three career shutouts in 130 career games, and Korpisalo has four shutouts in 221 career games. On the flipside, this could be the best team either of them have played for, and I did say it was a team stat, sooo…
Prediction: Forsberg and Korpisalo each record two shutouts.
Awards
Just for fun, I figured I would toss in this question about the goaltending awards. Goaltending is hard enough to predict without accounting for who will come out of nowhere and have an incredible and award-winning season, but looking at the Vezina poll I'm happy to see at least a few voters think that person plays for the Sens.
Now, the Jennings voting has me excited because it shows that fans are quite confident in Korpisalo and Forsberg as a unit. A full 42 per cent believe the tandem can be one of the best in the league. If their preseason performances are anything to go on, they could be. Both have looked solid, but is that enough for a Jennings nod?
My prediction: Neither will be nominated for a Vezina, but the duo will earn a Jennings nod (they don't win, though). It's obviously a tough one to predict, but my assumption was that nominees are typically anchored by a Vezina-nominated goalie in that season, which isn't always the case. Andersen and Raanta won the award in 2022 even though neither earned a Vezina nod. So I'm going to be an optimist for the Sens duo here.
Call up
No need to get too far into the weeds here.
My prediction: Sogaard is the first call-up if needed and will play the most games of any minor-league player this season barring injury.
Thanks for reading along and an extra thanks to those who voted in this poll. Next up I'll be going through the more abstract and team-success predictions, I hope you'll join me then too.
In the meantime, feel free to follow me on Twitter @lukemuise.
Go Sens go!
