What Happened to This Year’s Senators?
Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Written by: Trent Raynard
The 2022-23 Ottawa Senators ended the season with 86 points, six points out of a playoff spot. Even though the majority of the fanbase knew that the team was going to trade left winger Alex DeBrincat in the offseason, there was a lot of optimism surrounding the team as the season came to a close. If Pierre Dorion could make some good moves in the off-season (and that’s a big “if” when recent history was considered), the team could easily be competing for a playoff spot in 2023-24.
Dorion made a splash in free agency by inking starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year, $20 million deal. He then traded DeBrincat to the Detroit Red Wings for Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, a conditional 2024 first-round pick, and a 2024 fourth-round pick. Though no one thought that Kubalik would match DeBrincat’s production from the year before, it was considered to be an acceptable haul. To make up for some of the scoring lost in the DeBrincat trade, veteran winger Vladimir Tarasenko was signed to a one-year, $5 million deal. The GM capped off his off-season by signing Jake Sanderson to an eight-year, $64 million contract.
It wasn’t quite the “Summer of Pierre” from the year before, but it seemed like enough had been done in order to get the team over the hump. The Senators entered the 2023-24 season as a team to watch, with several pundits picking them as one of the teams that would make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The future looked bright; the fans were excited to finally have a quality team to cheer for again.
Fast forward to today, and the Senators are in eighth place in the Atlantic, 15th place in the East, and 28th place in the NHL. Their current point percentage of .444 is the lowest the team has had since the 2019-20 season. Instead of chasing a playoff spot, the team was a seller at the trade deadline, trading pending UFA Tarasenko to the Florida Panthers for a 2024 conditional fourth-round pick and a 2025 third-round pick.
So what happened? Are the 2023-24 Senators actually that much worse than the team that seemed like they were on the cusp the previous season? Well, actually, they aren’t.
In a lot of ways, this year’s team is just as good if not better than last year’s team. When looking at 5-on-5 play, both teams have very similar numbers in CF% (the percentage of total shot attempts by their team compared to the other team), SF% (the percentage of actual shots by their team compared to the other team), GF% (percentage of goals scored by their team compared to the other team), and xGF% (percentage of goals expected to be scored by their team compared to the other team). Ottawa’s GF/60 (goals scored per 60 minutes) has increased noticeably from 2.40 last season to 2.74 this season. The team’s overall shooting percentage has also increased from 7.49% to 8.97%. The emergence of Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto as major contributors both offensively and defensively and the continued growth of Jake Sanderson has given the fans something to be excited about almost every game.
However, there are some significant areas where the 2023-24 Senators have taken a major step back from the 2022-23 Senators. Though these are not the entirety of the problem, here are the three statistical areas where I believe the team will need to improve if they want to avoid this season’s troubles next year:
The Senators need to figure out how to keep a lead. In 2022-23, Ottawa won 77.2% of the time when scoring first, 77.8% of the time when leading after the first period, and 87.6% of the time when leading after the second period. All of these numbers were about average in NHL last season; nothing to be excited about but not a problem either. This season, no lead has been safe in Ottawa. The Senators have won 53.1% of the time when scoring first (27th in the league), 65.2% of the time when leading after the first period (25th in the league), and 76.0% of the time when leading after the second period (28th in the league). Part of the problem has been the team’s goal differential in the third period. It was +12 last season, but -8 this season. They have simply not been good at preventing their opponents from coming back late in games. The Sens need to develop that killer instinct that teams have where they aren’t just trying to protect a lead but are instead trying to put a game out of reach.
The Senators need to fix their special teams. In 2022-23, Ottawa’s power play was ranked eighth in the league (23.5%) and their penalty kill was 14th (80.1%). This season, the power play is 27th in the NHL (16.4%) and the penalty kill is 30th (73.8%). This is one of the more baffling differences between the two teams, especially when it comes to the power play. Five of the top seven players in power play ice time from last season (Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Giroux, and Sanderson) are still on the power play this season. Hall of Famer Daniel Alfredsson (who was no slouch on the man advantage himself) has been running the team’s powerplay since the coaching change in December, but even he doesn’t seem to be able to figure out what is wrong. When you have players with this much skill and past success on the power play, it is very confusing as to why they have not been able to achieve even a modicum of success. On the penalty kill, the team seems to have relied too much on Claude Giroux, who, despite being excellent on the faceoff, is dead last in the league in GA/60 (goals scored against while that player is on the ice per 60 minutes) while short-handed (13.97). If the team can get back to numbers even close to the league average next season, that will make a significant impact on the team’s overall level of success.
Everyone knew this one was coming: the Senators need reliable goaltending. After Ottawa used seven goalies during the 2022-23 season, the belief was that if the team was able to acquire a true number-one goalie who could avoid significant injuries, the goaltending situation could only improve. How wrong we all were. The seven goalies that were cobbled together last season averaged a 0.895 SV% (20th in the league) and a -0.101 GSAx/60 (goals saved above expected per 60 minutes) (19th in the league). Ottawa’s goaltending this season has hit rock bottom, averaging a 0.882 SV% (31st in the league) and a -0.546 GSAx/60 (32nd in the league). Since Joonas Korpisalo still has four more years at $4 million per season remaining on his deal, there are only so many options open to General Manager Steve Staios to fix the team’s issues in net, but it is clear that something needs to be done. It is hard to imagine a scenario where the team runs back the tandem of Korpisalo and Forsberg to start next season.
The 2023-24 Ottawa Senators as a whole have been a team of disappointment, but that does not mean that there is no hope for the future. They continue to be one of the youngest teams in the NHL, and multiple players (including stars Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk) are likely to have rebound seasons next year.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, they are probably going to be better next year. It’s almost impossible not to be. Right?
