Why We Should Not Be Worried About the Forward Depth
Photo by Alexander Jonesi, All-Pro Reels
Written By: AJ Bhuller
Like many Sens Fans, my day is full of all the usual stuff. I wake up, work out, get myself hydrated and fed and then spend eight hours trying to work while constantly refreshing Twitter.
While we have reached the dog days of the off-season so the Twitter refreshing has slowed down, something within the Sens realm has recently caught my eye and I have something to say about it.
The fan base, as it often is, is split several ways on the return for Alex Debrincat. There is a group of people who just feel we did not get enough and are worried about our forward depth. There's a group that feels somehow, some way it was a decent enough return, considering the circumstance. And finally, there is a group that is waiting to see what Pierre Dorion does next. I am here to tell you that if we look at logic, even if Dorion does nothing else, our forward group is going to be fine - improved even - come next year!
NORRIS VS DeBRINCAT
To show you how substantial a roster addition Norris is, I compared his career metrics so far to the last two years of Debrincat's career. This is broken down into 2021-2022 which was Debrincat's best season of his career (so you can't accuse me of being cheeky), where he had 41 goals and 78 points. And 2022-2023, where Norris only played 8 games.
The Cat has the slight edge on two major offensive categories. However, keep in mind this is 74 games of Norris compared to Debrincat's best offensive season to date, plus his "down year" in Ottawa. Which I don't think is an anomaly based on the eye ball test. But this is my opinion - back to our regularly scheduled program now.
Norris decisively takes the win on categories more influenced by the defensive side of the game. Norris is only off by decimals on the offensive side, with far less games played and time on ice. And he is far superior on the defensive end, which arguably from an analytical standpoint, shows that Norris is the better value player all around.
WHY SHOULD WE THINK OF NORRIS AS A PART OF THE RETURN FOR ADB?
You have to trick yourself and squint a little to make this one work. But when you see it, your mind will ease and rationalize the off-season changes this team has made for the better. I am not going to argue addition by subtraction in this case, because that is a whole different bag of chips for another day and the defensive metrics plus eyeball test speak for themselves.
Think of it simply, ADB being on this team with Norris was likely going to take Norris' opportunities away. Over Norris' career, he has been more efficient on both ends of the ice with less time on ice. If the eyeball test is still to be believed, Norris is more effective in making his teammates better.
When the 2nd line of Debrincat, Stutzle and Giroux was not working (for all of 5 minutes), it was Norris who dropped to the 2nd line from the heavens to "fix" that line. Debrincat, based on contract and reputation, would likely block Norris on the power play. Based on the metrics, Norris has been marginally more effective with far less time on ice.
Though they are close in age (Norris is a year younger), Norris is more green with career games played and time on ice. Hence, he has not gotten maximum reps to grow into the player he can be. There is no reason to believe he will not surpass what he did in 2021-2022 where he had 35 goals and 55 points in 66 GP.
THE OTHER ELEPHANT: DOMINIK KUBALIK
Put away the pitchforks! I am not for one minute saying Dominik Kubalik is comparable to Alex Debrincat. What the data does show is that Kubalik is an effective player at what he does, with less time on ice.
When put in similar situations: top six (5v5) and Power Play time, there is not a substantial drop-off between the two players. A quick YouTube rabbit hole would even show that Kubalik shoots the puck quicker and with more velocity than Debrincat did in Ottawa. This could favour PP number two greatly!
THE SIMPLE MATH AND NUMBERS
To anyone who was bored of the analytics and number crunching and scrolled to the bottom for the easy sauce (like I usually do) here it is:
Debrincat scored 27 goals and set up 39 others, contributing to 66 goals last year. Compare that to the last two "fuller" seasons for Josh Norris and Dominik Kubalik who combined for 55 goals and 45 assists contributing to 100 goals. Spread with more balance across the top 9, our roster improved on both ends of the ice.
Also, consider this potential jump in goals with the fact that The Senators lost approximately 16 one-goal games last year and missed the playoffs by just six points. The math adds up in our favour.
CONCLUSION
If the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion do nothing else, which is unlikely as they have been openly active, we will still have an improved and better-balanced team after the trade. Add to that that we have restocked the asset cupboard and this trade is quite a win through the bleak circumstances of what was the forced Alex Debrincat trade (to a preferred destination). GO SENS GO!!!
Remember my beloved Sens Fan brethren, our core is so young and locked up to team-friendly deals. With the above math plus the growth of our young guys, we are going to be just fine. Take a break Sens fans and do as I do…
Deep breath in… breathe out… whisper "Tim Stutzleeeeeee" and repeat.
