Road-Trip Look Ahead
Written by: SensBuzz
At 3-3-0, Ottawa Senators fans currently find themselves at every end of the panic spectrum. Optimists see the Sens's 3-2-0 homestand as nothing but a positive, while the pessimists are losing their heads from the way we've lost to the Hurricanes, Red Wings, and most recently the Sabres. A short recap of the season so far, the Sens have been beaten by playoff hopefuls while beating up on the bottom feeders. Sens fans - welcome to the murky middle, the pretender zone, no man's land.
As infuriating as it can be, our beloved Sens have got to leave these two past games in the past and look to Thursday night as the Sens embark on a two-game road trip starting with the Islanders. The importance of these two games cannot be stated enough. The Senators during the 2022-23 campaign owned the 8th worst away record in the NHL, boasting a 15-21-5 record, second to last in our division to only the Montreal Canadiens. The Senators must not fall behind the ball early again, and take points away from the 2-2-1 Islanders and 2-4-0 Penguins while they're both equally trying to find their feet this season. The expectations are simple:
4 Points = A+
3 Points = B
2 Points = C
1 Point = D
0 Points = F
Eduardo Munoz Alvarez – AP Photo
Let me take you back to 2022-23, after their 4-2-0 start in their first six games played - your Ottawa Senators went on a 2-10-1 tear that we look back upon and point to as the moments the season was lost. If that's not enough, after a 2-4-0 start to their 2021-22 campaign, the mighty Senators decided it was the perfect time to go on a 2-11-1 run to throw the season. Ladies and gentlemen, it's October–but as far as I am concerned, there will always be a need to panic in November, and you are not alone. The common trend of this Sens team early in the year is that when they lose - they lose in bunches. This team's character will be put to the test to close out this week on a positive note or else risk sending this fanbase into yet another frenzy. That said, here are three things I will be keeping an eye on, on this Sens road trip.
Team Defensive Presence
I’m cherry-picking here by using an all-encompassing term as “defensive presence,” but we need to talk about how bad/unlucky the Sens have been from a purely defensive standpoint (I'll get to Korpisalo later). Starting with the eye test, the Sens have been getting slaughtered around the net, and part of this is their attempt to play zonal defense. While many times commendable the Sens have looked lost on low-high cycles where we most recently saw the Sabres get these ridiculous tips on net because our players are leaving them alone to cover the space. Or even worse, assuming that they're above making mistakes as we saw in both games against Buffalo and Detroit.
"NHL Highlights | Sabres vs. Senators - October 24, 2023." YouTube, uploaded by Sportsnet, 24 October 2023.
A non-goal as a first example, Stützle, and Giroux are too casual watching Chabot and Sanderson defend a two on two. What happens here is Chabot gets beat wide, Sanderson reacts by taking the pass away but misses because the angle was just wrong, and both end up getting burned while Thompson had all the time in the world one-on-one vs Anton Forsberg - thankfully that one didn't end up in the back of our net. What I would like to see here moving forward is fewer straightbacks from the Sens and some more awareness to create a numbers advantage down low, team defence and effort need to be better.
"NHL Highlights | Red Wings vs. Senators - October 21, 2023." YouTube, uploaded by Sportsnet, 21 October 2023.
A similar criticism can be observed in David Perron's 3-1 goal on a Red Wings power play. Yes on the power play, there will always be someone wide open, but that player shouldn't be seven feet away from the net. The Red Wings were relentless on the low-high cycle, and Sanderson uncharacteristically over-commits again with Brannstrom's instructions to guard the right side. Once again, expecting your teammates to adapt, Sanderson should not be the one challenging the Wings in the corner in the first place. Regardless Brannstrom should be able to recognize Perron is more open than a 7/11.
Shifting to numbers and analytics briefly, the Senators sit 25th in the NHL in blocked shots per 60 and 30th in Giveaways per 60. The puck management simply has to be better as the Senators are allowing more goals than their xGA. evolving-hockey.com has the Sens allowing 3.63 goals against (26th best league-wide) at all strengths, while the xGA suggests we should only be allowing 3.08 at all strengths (12th best league-wide). The advanced stats suggest the Senators have been playing good hockey, but we desperately need to clean up in our zone and minimize the mistakes which are shooting us in the foot early days.
A quick fix: instruct the forwards to get stuck in deeper in the defensive zone.
A small instruction as simple as that would open up more passing options on breakouts, get the forwards in front of these unblocked shots, and eat up the space down low to help our defencemen and goaltenders. At the very least, this team and coaching staff need to show they're competent enough to identify and address where they've been failing in the defensive zone.
Joonas Korpisalo Redemption Arc
We're now weeks removed from the spectacle that was Korpisalo in the pre-season. Early days into the regular season now, however, and Korpisalo seems to be struggling. Personally, both goaltenders have been sub-par, however, we did get a quality start from Forsberg already and he is coming back from injury so there - I am giving him some slack that he deserves.
Korpisalo, on the other hand, only receives my sympathy.
Yes defensively the Sens are an absolute mess in front of both our netminders, and they should not have to shoulder all the blame by themselves. However, as a marquee signing of General Manager Pierre Dorion, and becoming this team's highest-paid Goaltender, the level of play has to be substantially better than what it has been thus far for Korpisalo. The Senators currently have the league's third-worst team Save Percentage at 0.864 percent (evolving hockey). This was supposed to be the position we were most secure with and had the most faith in coming into this campaign.
Utilizing the NHL's new Edge analytics, the website has Korpisalo ranked in the bottom 25th percentile in Goals Against Average, Overall Save Percentage and Save Percentage on High Danger Shots. Among other databases, Evolving Hockey.com has Korpisalo ranked 56/66 for Goals Saved Above Expected at -2.41 (meaning he's let in more goals than he should have based on the quality of chances ahead of him). NHL Edge shows that Korpisalo also has benefitted from the Senators scoring almost a whole goal more than the average in the NHL when Korpisalo has taken the crease. In short, we need more from Korpisalo, fortunately, he'll have the opportunity to play against the Penguins, who he was stellar against in the pre-season. But the goaltending has to steal us some games, and there’s no better time to start than in the most unpredictable and tense time in the Senators’s schedule.
Erik Brannstrom
I feel dirty writing anything negative about the Brannchise, but it has been a rough start to the season for our young defenceman. Erik Brannstrom ended the 2022-23 campaign as an absolute analytical darling on a club with many defensive black holes.
At Even Strength, Erik Brannstrom found himself as the defensive corps' leader in xGA/60 at 2.37 which also led him to owning the team's best xG percent amongst our NHL regulars. Away from analytics, Brannstrom earned DJ Smith's trust with regular penalty-killing time and stepped into the Top 4 in an important way when either Zub or Chabot were sidelined with injury.
In contrast, this year Brannstrom's seen his xGA/60 shoot up to 3.06, the most amongst the six defensemen that started opening night, while he and his partner (whoever it has been) have produced little to no offense resulting in Brannstrom owning a team-worst 32.14 per cent xG percentage at even strength.
I look at the negative hockey being played defensively, and the little offense being produced, while considering the price tag he carries. There's no doubt in my mind that there is a player in there, however, I firmly believe that this man needs consistent top four minutes with a steady stay-at-home partner (*cough* Tyler Kleven *cough*) rather than rotting his best years away being a role player and waiting for an injury to someone ahead of him. He deserves more and that money brings us a step closer to the RFA who shall not be named because it makes me mad.
Either way, I need to see A LOT more from Brannstrom to justify his price tag but to also make the case his presence is more valuable than our absent RFA’s.
Go Sens Go.
